Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
Find the win rate a reward-to-risk ratio needs just to break even.
Please note: Trading carries substantial risk of loss. These calculators are planning tools, not trading advice, and no position sizing method prevents losses.
What the Break-Even Win Rate Calculator does
Every reward-to-risk ratio implies a minimum win rate below which the system loses money. Setting expectancy to zero and solving gives that threshold — and it falls sharply as targets widen, which is why trend systems survive on win rates that would ruin a scalper.
Formula
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + Reward:risk)With costs = (1 + Cost per trade) ÷ (1 + Reward:risk)Expectancy = Win rate × R − Loss rate × 1 − Costs
Inputs explained
| Input | Unit | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reward-to-risk ratio | number | Yes | A 2 means you target twice what you risk. Accepts 0.01 or more. |
| Your actual win rate | % | Optional | — |
| Costs per trade | % | Optional | Commission and slippage, as a percentage of the amount risked. |
| Risk per trade | selected currency | Optional | Accepts 0 or more. |
| Trades per year | number | Optional | Accepts 0 or more. |
| Currency | one of 10 options | Optional | — |
How to use it
- Choose Currency.
- Enter Reward-to-risk ratio.
- Optionally add Your actual win rate, Costs per trade and Risk per trade.
- Select Calculate.
Worked example
A system targeting twice what it risks, with no costs.
- Reward:risk
- 2
- Actual win rate
- 45%
Break-even is 1 ÷ 3 = 33.33%. At a 45% win rate the system is 11.67 points ahead, giving an expectancy of 0.35R per trade.
Frequently asked questions
Why does a 3:1 system only need a 25% win rate?
Because each winner covers three losers. Setting expectancy to zero gives W = 1/(1+R), so the required win rate falls as the reward multiple rises.
Should I always aim for a higher reward-to-risk?
Not blindly. Wider targets are reached less often, so the win rate falls with them. The question is whether it falls faster or slower than the break-even threshold does.
Method and sources
Method. The win rate at which expectancy is zero: 1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk).
Assumptions
- Wins and losses are uniform at the ratio entered, and costs are excluded unless folded into it.
Limitations
- This is the floor, not a target. Trading at exactly the break-even rate loses money once costs are included.
- It assumes every win is the full target and every loss the full stop, which real records never match.